Sales of Existing Homes Unchanged, Trailing Projections
September 24, 2018
Contract closings were unchanged from the prior month at a 5.34 million annual rate (before the report, it was estimated it would be at a 5.37 million pace). This follows four straight declines. The median sales price increased 4.6% year-over-year to $264,800. The inventory of available properties rose 2.7% year-over-year to 1.92 million, which was the first increase in more than three years.
Borrowing costs have risen this year and property price gains — while moderating — continue to outpace wages amid a persistent shortage of available listings. Those affordability hurdles are especially burdensome for younger prospective buyers looking for their first homes.
Buyers are getting help from a steady job market and healthier finances. While overall consumer confidence remains elevated, the latest University of Michigan report showed Americans see home buying conditions as less favorable than a few years ago.
Homebuilding also is struggling to pick up steam, government data showed on Sept. 19. While housing starts rose, permits — a proxy for future construction — fell to the slowest pace since May 2017, with single-family authorizations dropping the most in seven years.
"There are buyers on the sidelines" ready to re-enter the market, Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report. "The housing market can turn for the better" as long as inventory continues to rise, he said.
Purchases rose in two of four regions, led by a 7.6% gain in the northeast; sales also rose in Midwest while declining in the south and west. At the current pace, it would take 4.3 months to sell the homes on the market, compared with 4.1 months a year earlier; the Realtors group considers less than five months' supply consistent with a tight market.
Single-family home sales were unchanged at an annual rate of 4.75 million. Purchases of condominium and co-op units unchanged at 590,000 pace.
Homes stayed on the market for an average of 29 days, compared with 30 days a year earlier.
Existing home sales account for about 90% of the market and are calculated when a contract closes. The remainder of the market is made up by new home sales, which are considered a timelier indicator and are tabulated when contracts get signed.
Source: Bloomberg News
As Loan Volumes Fall, Homebuyers are Making Big Down Payments
Even as homebuyers acquiring loans deposit more money into the transactions, mortgage origination volume is continuing to fall.
According to Attom Data Solutions, the median down payment on Condos and single-family homes purchased with financing reached its peak since 2000’s first quarter when the data was first recorded. At a median of $19,900, the 2018 second quarter was up 18 percent year-on-year from $16,925 and up 19 percent from the previous quarter’s $16,750.
Daren Blomquist, a senior vice president at Attom Data Solutions in a press release said, “Buyers are upping the ante when it comes to down payments, evidenced by the record-high median down payment for homes purchased in the quarter, and an increasing number of buyers are getting help from co-buyers.”
At 7.6 percent of the median sales price, the second-quarter down payment figure marked the highest percentage in nearly 15 years. It’s a move up from 6.6 percent of the median sales price for both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.
Larger down payments imply that homebuyers are financially sound, hence lenders can expect better repayment. However, it also means that lenders take on less risk, which translates into smaller loan amounts that drive interest earnings and loan officer commissions.
In the meantime, mortgage originations decreased for the third quarter consecutively as growth in purchase and home equity line of credit lending was overshadowed by a fall in refinance activity.
In the second quarter, more than 1.5 million loans secured by residential property were originated, reducing 27 percent year-on-year and 16 percent from the previous quarter.
Of all residential loans originated, purchase loans accounted for 926,516, a 1 percent year-on-year increase and a 39 percent rise from the earlier quarter. There was a decrease in refinance loan originations at 799,093- a four-year low, down 2 percent from one year ago and less than 1 percent from the previous quarter.
Source: National Mortgage News